海外中国公民和中资企业的安全风险

中国驻外使馆发布的安全提醒信息是探查有关海外中国公民和中资企业安全风险的有效途径。2017~2018年，中国驻外使馆发布了一千多条安全提醒信息，其中所包含的安全风险可分为九大类，相关提醒信息数量位列前三的分别是社会治安类风险，中国公民和中资企业违法违规及行为不当导致的安全风险以及恐怖袭击、武装冲突和政局动荡类风险。全球电信诈骗犯罪猖獗、恐怖袭击风险不减、地区局势持续动荡等因素是影响海外中国公民和企业安全的客观因素；海外中国公民和中资企业安全风险防范意识薄弱、行为不当和违法违规等不仅给当事人和涉事企业带来安全威胁，还直接影响当地民众对中国国家和中国公民整体形象的认知，在一定程度上形成了“恶性循环”的安全困境。在安全风险防范方面，应加强海外安全风险预防宣传，明确相关海外安全提醒信息的法律效力，让罔顾者承担相应责任；建立更多类似于“不文明旅游行为黑名单”的警示惩戒机制；根据风险分布的地域特点强化针对性；对于那些根源在国内的安全风险，在预防和处置上，可“内外并举”，在国内展开专项打击行动的同时积极开展中外执法合作。     

Coup,riot, war: How political institutions and ethnic politics shape alternative forms of political violence

This article explores how different types of governance systems shape different forms of political violence. We identify four governance types by combining the “institutional” dimension of coalition size represented by a minimum winning coalition (MWC) and the “ethno-political” dimension represented by the size of ethnic groups participating in the governing coalition. This study hypothesizes that (a) an exclusive system (small MWC; narrow-based ethnic coalition) is likely to engender civil war, (b) an oversized system (small MWC; broad-based ethnic coalition) is likely to generate a coup, and (c) an undersized system (large MWC; narrow-based ethnic coalition) is likely to stimulate riots or protests. Statistical analyses confirm all three hypotheses, implying that opposition groups choose alternative forms of conflict that maximize their chances of accessing power under different governance configurations. The article concludes by identifying three possible paths toward inclusive governance and suggesting that institutional reform before ethnic inclusion makes a transition toward inclusive governance far less dangerous.     

A meteoric strategic partnership? The still long march of mutual understanding and trust between China and the Czech Republic

Asia Europe Journal - After the introduction of the 16 + 1 cooperation platform in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2012, bilateral relations between China and Czechia warmed up in...